What are the Four Forecasting Methods and How to Choose the Right One?

Forecasting is one of the most-effective strategies that allow businesses to gain valuable insights into consumer demands. With the proper forecasting techniques, companies can identify what is wrong in the process. You can always tweak the process or implement the right strategies by learning the future trends. Being able to understand what customers want can help decrease unnecessary costs and may increase profitability. Even if the prediction was incorrect, it would allow you to better understand the industry. It is hard to predict the future and get an accurate analysis. Markets have a high rate of volatility, and digital technologies are bringing new innovations every day. Here we will talk about the business forecasting methods that may help you develop the process and make better data-driven decisions.

Types of Forecasting Methods

Most businesses see forecasting future trends as an unnecessary expense. We understand that forecasting might require proper planning and strategizing. However, spending on business forecasting strategies should be seen as an investment. There can be multiple ways to forecast the outcomes and predict future trends. Out of all the methods, here are the four commonly used forecasting methods and models that companies can utilize to predict future trends.  

Time Series Forecasting  

Time Series Forecasting is one of the methods which emphasizes using historical data to visualize patterns. The time-based data can help predict how the variables have changed in terms of hours, days, weeks, or months. It will help identify the pattern of how the shift has been – upwards or downwards. Make sure to select the correct time cycle and duration to determine this. Here are the steps you must follow to predict information using this forecasting method:  

• Gather the data and put it in the first column of the spreadsheet.
• The other values that you want to forecast should be added in the next column.  
• Select the relevant data and click on the data tab. Under that tab, you must proceed to select the Forecast Group and select Forecast sheet.  
• After opening the sheet, you must select the line or graph you want to understand and want to use.  
• Determine the last date and use the data to identify the best future trends or predictions.  

The Delphi Method  

Delphi is another standard forecasting method that can be used to analyze trends based on the responses provided by experts. The RAND Corporation developed the technique in the late 1960s. A group of field experts is selected. They are given a series of questionnaires to which must respond. The first round of the forecasting method involves asking questions to introduce the topic. After that, there is the second round of questionnaires, where the expert participants get a chance to reevaluate their responses. The number of rounds of the questionnaire may depend on the goal of the company, which may allow them to identify future trends and get closer to the right answer. The experts get access to more information with each qualifying round and may move ahead to determine strategies once they have sufficient information.  

Judgmental Forecasting Method  

It is one of the forecasting methods which is focused on using subjective and intuitive information to predict trends. It is commonly used when there is no data available, especially when the product is in the launch phase, or the market is facing unpredictable conditions. Take a subjective approach and think of specific variables. While following this model, you must also consider the limitations and see how the information can be improved. It carries extreme value in the field of research and development as it provides insights and data that computerized models cannot analyze.  

Scenario Writing  

Scenario Writing is one of the forecasting methods which startups primarily use to understand the most likely outcomes. The forecaster first thinks of different criteria and focuses on generating different results that are likely to occur. The final decision is taken by the decision maker or the leading expert who decides on an ideal scenario. It provides entrepreneurs with real-time insights into the best-likely situation and the worst-case scenario. Use this technique to generate different outcomes and predict future trends for your business.  

How to Choose the Right Forecasting Methods?  

These are the forecasting methods that you can choose to predict the future of your business. To make it effective, you should keep the below-mentioned things in mind.  

• Determine the purpose and goals that you want to accomplish via the process of business forecasting strategies. Defining goals will also allow you to instruct and guide others in the team.  
• Check the variables involved in the forecasting process.  
• After identifying the goals and variables, you should check the difference in terms of data. See the progress or how the data has changed over the years.
• Advise the forecaster and experts to remain neutral to avoid any kind of biases in the process.  
• Use the right forecasting tools to compile the data and fulfill your needs.  

While choosing the forecasting methods, you should also keep an eye on the collected data. See if the sample is enough and identify the sources of the data. If possible, you should always try to gather information from primary sources. Incorrect data could impact the analysis and the final results. Take the necessary steps to collect and compile the relevant data. Use business forecasting strategies as a technique to identify common business problems and make your business more profitable.